Ponderosa postcript

Thinking of the long run, Keynes once said that in the long run we are all dead.

It is also true that, in the long run, if current trends continue and the proportion of the pie taken by rich continues to rise, the poor people in this country will get so fed up with the rich people taking such a big slice of the pie that there will be disturbances, perhaps revolutions. Perhaps they will fiddle their benefits.

In the long run, we here in Great Britain will have to consume less. We cannot cover our current account deficit with the rest of the world with capital for ever. We've managed this trick for fifty years now, and maybe for fifty years to come, but not for ever.

In the long run, if current trends continue and the proportion of the population at work continues to fall, those of us of at work will have to consume less so that there is something left, or perhaps care homes left, for those of us not at work to consume. As least for those of us not at work for respectable reasons: as they used to say in the Middle Ages when this problem wore different clothes, no consumption for sturdy beggars.

In the long run, financial services will follow the money, that is to say out of London. London got to be a financial centre because it was the capital of a very rich and powerful country, which is already a lot less true than it was and will get even less true as time goes on.

None of this need bother the current rich too much. The third and fourth long runs don't apply to them and the second and fifth long runs are probably a few years off yet.